Image Credentials: Image Title: Merkel Blames Poland and Baltics for Russian Invasion of Ukraine Amid Memoir Promotion Source: (sora.openai) Date: October 2025. Attribution: Created using AI-generated imagery (sora.openai), this does not depict a real-world scene.
Benjamin Foster | Staff Writer with Agencies
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel has sparked controversy by attempting to shift some of the blame for Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine onto Poland and the Baltic states. Speaking during a promotional tour in Hungary for her upcoming 2024 memoirs, Merkel offered an alternative historical perspective on the conflict, drawing criticism from historians, politicians, and analysts alike.
Revisiting the Minsk Agreement
Merkel told the Partizan media outlet, as reported by the German daily Bild, that the 2015 Minsk Agreement, which she helped negotiate to halt fighting in Ukraine’s Donbas region, had “brought about calm” and allowed Kyiv time to “gather strength” against Russia. She argued that by 2021, it became clear the agreement was “no longer being taken seriously by Putin,” prompting her to push for a new framework for the European Union to negotiate peace directly with Moscow.
However, she claimed that Poland and the Baltic states, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, were “against it,” fearing that the EU would not maintain a unified policy toward Russia. “In any case, it didn’t come to fruition. Then I left office, and then Putin’s aggression began,” Merkel said.
Critics noted that Merkel’s argument glossed over years of ongoing conflict following Minsk, during which Russian forces killed or wounded over 5,000 Ukrainian soldiers between 2015 and 2021. The suggestion that the Baltics and Poland were primarily responsible for the breakdown of negotiations appeared to many as an attempt to deflect criticism from her own record.
Merkel’s Energy Policies Under Scrutiny
Analysts have long pointed to Merkel’s energy policies as contributing to Russia’s confidence in its regional power. Senior German figures, including former Justice Minister Marco Buschmann, have argued that Germany’s continuation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, even after Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, emboldened Moscow. “Knowing what we do today, the decision to pursue Nord Stream 2 following the annexation of Crimea in 2014 was Germany’s contribution to the outbreak of the war in Ukraine,” Buschmann stated in 2022 after the invasion.
Merkel’s reliance on Russian gas and oil, coupled with domestic inefficiencies in green energy, was a frequent point of criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump. In 2018, Trump warned that Nord Stream 2 could leave Germany “captive” to Vladimir Putin. According to reports, German diplomats reportedly dismissed these warnings during United Nations discussions, reflecting a sense of hubris that would later prove costly.
Intelligence Misjudgments and the Aftermath
German intelligence assessments before the invasion reportedly concluded that certifying Nord Stream 2 would “not jeopardise the security of gas supply in Germany and the European Union.” This assessment was later revealed to be disastrously inaccurate, as Russian gas and oil supplies were cut off just months after the invasion, in retaliation for EU sanctions imposed in response to Moscow’s aggression.
Merkel’s memoir promotion and her comments have reignited debates about her legacy, particularly regarding Germany’s role in the lead-up to the Ukraine war. By pointing to Poland and the Baltic states, Merkel appears to be reframing history in a way that distances herself from the criticism tied to her energy policies and diplomatic decisions.
Legacy Questions
While Merkel remains a prominent figure in European politics, her attempt to shift responsibility has generated pushback from historians, politicians, and analysts who argue that her administration’s decisions—particularly regarding Nord Stream 2 and EU-Russia engagement—played a significant role in emboldening Putin.
As her memoirs are released in 2024, Merkel’s framing of these events will likely continue to spark debate over the responsibility for one of Europe’s most consequential conflicts in recent memory, and the role of German policy in both deterring and inadvertently enabling Russian aggression.
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