Image: from Mario Nawfal X@MarioNawfal
By Open Chronicle Staff with Agencies
MOSCOW – The Russian economy is showing signs of depletion following an artificial period of stimulation driven by massive government spending on the defense sector, according to analysis released by the Foreign Intelligence Service. The data suggests Moscow’s much-touted “war economy” concept is losing momentum, potentially giving way to stagnation or recession.
The intelligence report highlights a critical admission from Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who conceded that budget support for the economy “cannot last indefinitely” and will inevitably lead to systemic imbalances.
According to intelligence services, Siluanov’s statement effectively signals an abandonment of the “war economy” narrative that Russian state propaganda had aggressively promoted over the past year. That narrative, which centered on record loading of defense sector enterprises, presented the military-industrial complex as the undisputed “locomotive” of the Russian economy, generating high profits and rising salaries.
Recent figures suggest that the military-industrial complex is now becoming an economic burden rather than a driver of growth. In the first nine months of this year, growth in the sector plummeted to a mere 0.3%, a dramatic drop compared to the 5% growth recorded in the preceding year. This sharp deceleration has already begun to impact enterprise income and wage levels.
While the Kremlin has set an official target for 1% GDP growth in 2025, Russian economists are increasingly voicing concerns about stagnation and recession. The intelligence assessment concludes that signals across various sectors confirm Russia’s economic dynamics are rapidly weakening, with prospects pointing toward further deterioration rather than recovery.
The current economic outlook indicates that the financial sustainability of fueling the war through endless budget subsidies has reached its limit, forcing Moscow to grapple with the long-term economic consequences of prioritizing military spending over sustainable civilian growth.