By Open Chronicle
The year 1922 marked a significant turning point in the history of meteorology, particularly with the pioneering publication of Weather Prediction by Numerical Process by Lewis Fry Richardson. This foundational work introduced the concept of numerical weather prediction (NWP), setting the stage for modern computational meteorology. While technological limitations of the time prevented immediate practical application, Richardson’s ideas profoundly shaped the discipline for decades to come.
Key Developments
Numerical Weather Prediction
Richardson’s 1922 book laid the groundwork for applying mathematics and physics to weather forecasting. He proposed dividing the atmosphere into a grid of cells and solving a system of differential equations for each cell, an approach now standard in modern forecasting models. His method used a hydrostatic variation of Bjerknes’s primitive equations, a theoretical framework developed in the early 20th century to describe atmospheric motion.
Despite the innovation, Richardson’s first weather forecast, completed entirely by hand, was significantly inaccurate due to imbalances in the initial conditions. Nonetheless, his approach was revolutionary, envisioning a future in which teams of human calculators, or eventually, machines, could produce forecasts based on dynamic simulations. His “Forecast Factory” concept foreshadowed the role of supercomputers in 21st-century meteorology.
Initial Forecast Limitations
Richardson’s trial forecast predicted an extreme and unrealistic change in surface pressure, largely due to poor initial data and the lack of computational resources to resolve finer-scale atmospheric processes. However, his recognition of these flaws highlighted the need for accurate observational data and powerful computational tools—two pillars of modern meteorology.
Modern Influence
Though Richardson’s ideas were not immediately adopted, they gained relevance in the mid-20th century with the advent of electronic computing. His work is now seen as the foundation of numerical weather prediction, a cornerstone of modern forecasting employed by meteorological agencies worldwide.
Other Meteorological Advances in 1922
Observational Technology
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Radiosondes, which measure atmospheric temperature, pressure, and humidity at high altitudes, began to see broader experimental use during the 1920s. Though not yet widespread, they represented a major leap in atmospheric observation.
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Surface weather stations provided basic temperature and precipitation data globally, but data networks were sparse and limited in coverage.
Theoretical and Practical Advances
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The Norwegian Cyclone Model, developed by the Bergen School of Meteorology, continued to influence the understanding of frontal systems, cyclones, and anticyclones.
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Interest in climate variability, including phenomena like El Niño, began to develop, although understanding remained rudimentary.
Meteorology and Geopolitics
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The aftermath of World War I (1914–1918) spurred developments in military meteorology, particularly for aviation and artillery use. This period also saw growing recognition of the need for accurate forecasting for aerial and maritime navigation.
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There was increasing international cooperation in the field, with early efforts laying the groundwork for what would eventually become the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
Significant Weather Events of 1922
1922 Atlantic Hurricane Season
The 1922 Atlantic hurricane season was relatively quiet by historical standards, with five tropical storms, two of which became hurricanes. None of the storms reached major hurricane strength. Despite the lower activity, the season contributed to ongoing efforts to understand the formation and behavior of tropical cyclones. The storms were tracked using ship reports, surface observations, and limited radio communication, which highlighted the challenges of storm monitoring before the advent of satellite technology.
1922 Shantou Typhoon
On August 2, 1922, a catastrophic typhoon struck the city of Shantou (Swatow) in southeastern China, killing an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 people. It remains one of the deadliest typhoons in recorded history. The storm brought a devastating storm surge that swept through coastal villages, causing massive destruction. The event underscored the need for improved storm prediction and warning systems, especially in vulnerable coastal regions of Asia.
1922 Austin Twin Tornadoes
On May 4, 1922, the city of Austin, Texas, experienced an unusual meteorological phenomenon when two tornadoes struck in rapid succession. The twin tornadoes caused extensive damage across the city, killing 12 people and injuring many more. The event drew attention to the unpredictable nature of tornado behavior and prompted calls for enhanced tornado monitoring and public awareness campaigns in the United States.
Legacy
1922 stands as a formative year in meteorology, bridging classical observational techniques with the dawn of computational forecasting. While the technology of the time limited immediate progress, the theoretical breakthroughs, especially Lewis Fry Richardson’s numerical methods, paved the way for the digital transformation of weather science. Combined with notable extreme weather events and increasing international collaboration, 1922 occupies a critical place in the evolution of modern meteorology.
References
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Richardson, L. F. (1922). Weather Prediction by Numerical Process. Cambridge University Press.
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Lynch, P. (2006). The Emergence of Numerical Weather Prediction: Richardson’s Dream. Cambridge University Press.
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American Meteorological Society. (1922). Monthly Weather Review, U.S. Weather Bureau.
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Harper, K. (2008). Weather by the Numbers: The Genesis of Modern Meteorology. MIT Press.
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World Meteorological Organization. (2022). A History of the WMO and International Meteorological Cooperation. Retrieved from https://public.wmo.int
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Neumann, C. J., Jarvinen, B. R., McAdie, C. J., & Elms, J. D. (1993). Tropical Cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1851–1992. National Hurricane Center.
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U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Historical Hurricane Tracks. Retrieved from https://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes
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Chenoweth, M. (2006). “The Shantou Typhoon of 1922.” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 87(3), 363–366.
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Grazulis, T. P. (1993). Significant Tornadoes, 1680–1991. Environmental Films.
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Fujita, T. T. (1992). Memoirs of an Effort to Unlock the Mystery of Severe Storms. University of Chicago Press.
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