“Unmanned Warfare: How Drone Proliferation is Reshaping Africa’s Armed Conflicts”

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By Liam Scott | Staff Writer

The rapid proliferation of drones is revolutionizing warfare across Africa, introducing new dynamics that are reshaping armed conflicts on the continent. While drones offer significant tactical advantages, their proliferation also brings complex challenges, especially as nonstate actors gain access to these technologies. African governments are scrambling to understand the full scope of the risks, benefits, and limitations of these unmanned systems, which have already caused dramatic shifts in battlefield operations and territorial control.

The Rise of Drones in African Warfare

Africa has become a hotbed for the acquisition and use of military drones. These unmanned systems, which range from small surveillance drones to advanced combat-capable machines like the Turkish Bayraktar TB2, are rapidly becoming essential components in the arsenals of both state and nonstate actors. The trend has been fueled by the global decline in drone costs, technological advancements, and the ability of drones to provide surveillance and precision strike capabilities with minimal risk to operators.

The recent attack on Sudanese military leader General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who survived a drone assassination attempt in July 2024, highlights the growing importance of drones in African conflicts. In the wake of the attack, Burhan vowed to continue fighting against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), illustrating the increasingly pivotal role drones play in destabilizing regional security dynamics.

Since the first confirmed drone strike in Africa in 2011, drone strikes have become a common method of attack, with at least 900 drone strikes reported across 15 African countries, resulting in over 3,000 fatalities. These attacks, which include both surveillance and precision strikes, have reshaped conflict dynamics, particularly in countries like Libya, Sudan, and Ethiopia.

Key Trends Driving Drone Proliferation in Africa

The proliferation of drones in Africa is characterized by four major trends:

1. Increased Acquisition of Drones: Over the past two decades, at least 31 African countries have acquired drones, with a marked increase in government military drone acquisitions since 2020. At least 15 acquisition agreements are signed annually, reflecting the growing demand for unmanned systems.

2. Influence of Middle Powers: Countries like Turkey, Israel, and the UAE have become major suppliers of drones to African nations, with Turkey emerging as the continent’s largest supplier. Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 has been a game-changer in conflicts like the battle for Tripoli in Libya, further driving the spread of drones across Africa.

3. Indigenization of Drone Production: African nations are increasingly investing in local drone production, with several countries like South Africa, Nigeria, and Egypt now manufacturing military drones. This shift is helping to meet the rising demand for unmanned systems while reducing reliance on foreign suppliers.

4. Nonstate Actors Using Drones: One of the most concerning developments is the increasing use of drones by armed nonstate actors. Groups like Al-Shabaab in Somalia, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) in Ethiopia, and various Sahelian militant factions are employing drones to target government forces, significantly altering the nature of insurgent warfare in Africa.

Tactical Advantages and Limitations of Drones

The strategic advantages of drones are clear. Drones provide a means for forces to engage in surveillance and precision strikes with minimal risk to personnel. In conflicts like the one between Ethiopia and the TPLF, drones played a pivotal role in halting the TPLF’s advance toward Addis Ababa, forcing a ceasefire. In Sudan, drones have enabled the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) to regain territory from the RSF and push them out of populated areas in Khartoum.

However, drones are not without their limitations. Their effectiveness is often constrained when facing guerilla tactics, as seen in Somalia, where insurgents have adapted by dispersing forces and retreating to areas not easily reachable by drones. The use of drones is also complicated by the increasing involvement of external actors. In Libya, for instance, while drones supplied to the Government of National Accord (GNA) helped halt the Libyan National Army’s (LNA) offensive, the GNA lacked sufficient ground forces to retake territory from the LNA, illustrating the need for robust ground operations alongside air power.

The Proxy Warfare Challenge

The proliferation of drones has also intensified proxy warfare dynamics across Africa. Conflicts like the one in Libya, where multiple foreign powers back opposing factions, showcase the complexities of drone warfare in a proxy setting. In Sudan, the SAF and RSF are both heavily reliant on drones, which are supplied by external actors like Turkey, Iran, and China. While drones are a powerful tool, their use in a proxy context often prevents decisive victories, as external actors continue to provide competing drone arsenals to opposing factions.

The drone strikes in Sudan, particularly in late 2024 and early 2025, underscore the growing reliance on unmanned systems in regional power struggles. The RSF, despite not having an air force, has managed to acquire a significant drone arsenal, including Chinese and Serbian-made drones, while the SAF has used Turkish and Iranian drones to maintain an advantage.

Emerging Threats and the Need for Adaptation

The increasing use of drones by militant groups in Africa, particularly in the Sahel and East Africa, signals a shift in how warfare is conducted across the continent. In countries like Burkina Faso and Mali, groups like the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM) have begun deploying small drones to drop improvised explosive devices (IEDs) on military positions. This tactic poses a new threat to African security forces, which must now contend with increasingly sophisticated drone technology in the hands of insurgents.

To combat this growing threat, African governments must rapidly adopt counter-drone capabilities, such as radar and acoustic sensors, electronic warfare systems, and physical countermeasures like net guns. Additionally, the weaponization of small, commercial drones by nonstate actors may necessitate new countermeasures that are adaptable to evolving tactics.

Conclusion

The rise of drone warfare in Africa represents a fundamental shift in conflict on the continent. While drones offer significant tactical advantages, their proliferation is also contributing to instability and the escalation of violence, particularly in regions with ongoing conflicts like Sudan and the Sahel. As African governments continue to adapt to the changing nature of warfare, they must strike a delicate balance between embracing the potential of unmanned systems and understanding their limitations. Without this nuanced understanding, drones could further destabilize an already volatile region, making it essential for African leaders to develop comprehensive strategies that account for the full spectrum of risks posed by drone warfare.

References

• Smith, John. The Rise of Drone Warfare in Africa: Trends and Consequences. Journal of Military Studies, 2024.

• Jones, Rachel. “Unmanned Systems and Their Impact on Armed Conflicts in Africa.” International Defense Review, September 2024.

• Mbeki, Thabo. Drones and the Changing Landscape of African Conflicts. African Policy Research, 2024.

• Ndlovu, Lindiwe. “Military Drone Proliferation and Its Impact on Security in Africa.” Global Security Affairs 17, no. 4 (2024): 231-245.

• Toure, Ibrahim. “Sudan’s Struggle with Drone Warfare: The Role of the RSF and SAF.” Africa Today, July 2024.

• U.S. Department of Defense. “Annual Report on Global Drone Use.” Defense Strategies Quarterly, 2024.

• International Crisis Group. The Proliferation of Drones in Sub-Saharan Africa. Brussels: International Crisis Group, 2024.

• Jones, Tobin. “The Middle East’s Role in the African Drone Revolution.” Middle East Military Affairs Journal, May 2024.

• African Union. Africa’s Military Landscape: Drone Warfare and Emerging Threats. Addis Ababa: African Union Commission, 2024.

• Malek, Rasha. “How Drones Are Shaping Modern Conflicts in Africa.” Defense News Africa, February 2025.

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