Image: Yves Léonard X@yvesleonard27
By International Desk with Agencies
LISBON — Sunday, January 18, 2026 — Exit polls released tonight in Portugal confirm a historic shift in the country’s political landscape. For the first time in forty years, the presidential election will move to a second round. According to projections from the Catholic University for RTP and Pitagórica for TVI/CNN Portugal, Socialist António José Seguro and far-right leader André Ventura are the frontrunners to face off in a final runoff on February 8.
The Top Tier: A Fight for the Second Spot
While António José Seguro secured a commanding lead, the race for the second spot remained a “technical tie” throughout the evening between André Ventura and liberal candidate João Cotrim de Figueiredo.
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António José Seguro (PS-backed): Leading with a projected 30.8% to 35.2%. Seguro has successfully consolidated the moderate vote, positioning himself as the primary institutional alternative.
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André Ventura (Chega): Polling between 19.9% and 24.1%. If these numbers hold, Ventura will become the first far-right candidate in Portuguese history to reach a presidential runoff.
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João Cotrim de Figueiredo (Liberal Initiative): A strong third place with 16.3% to 20.1%. While he remains within the margin of error to potentially overtake Ventura, projections currently place him just outside the qualifying duo.
The Fallen Favorites
The night brought disappointment for two candidates who earlier in the campaign were considered potential winners. Both Henrique Gouveia e Melo and Luís Marques Mendes have been officially declared out of the running for the second round.
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Henrique Gouveia e Melo (Independent): The retired Admiral garnered between 9.2% and 12.4%. His independent, “non-partisan” appeal failed to overcome the late-stage consolidation of the major party bases.
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Luís Marques Mendes (PSD-backed): In a major upset for the center-right, Mendes finished in fifth place with 9.1% to 12.3%. Despite the support of the ruling PSD/CDS-PP parties, his campaign failed to ignite a “useful vote” strategy among conservative voters.
Left-Wing and Independent Results
Further down the ballot, the left-wing candidates struggled to find a foothold in a race dominated by the top five.
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Catarina Martins (BE): 0.9% to 2.7%
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António Filipe (PCP): 0.4% to 2.0%
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Manuel João Vieira (Independent): The musician and satirist made a surprising showing, polling between 0.7% and 2.3%, potentially placing him ahead of the traditional communist candidate, António Filipe.
Exit Poll Summary (Catholic University / Pitagórica)
| Candidate | Projected Vote % | Status |
| António José Seguro | 30.8% – 35.2% | Qualified for 2nd Round |
| André Ventura | 19.9% – 24.1% | Likely Qualifier |
| João Cotrim Figueiredo | 16.3% – 20.1% | Technical Tie for 2nd |
| Gouveia e Melo | 9.2% – 12.4% | Eliminated |
| Luís Marques Mendes | 9.1% – 12.3% | Eliminated |
As the official count continues, the “cordon sanitaire” that historically kept the far-right from the highest offices of the Portuguese state is facing its greatest test. All eyes now turn to the official proclamation of results and the start of a high-stakes three-week campaign before the final vote on February 8.