Indonesia is expected to have recorded a significantly larger trade surplus in August, while annual inflation likely increased slightly in September but remained within the central bank’s target range, according to a poll of economists conducted ahead of official data due on October 1.
By Open Chronicle with agencies | September 30, 2026
JAKARTA — Indonesia’s trade surplus is expected to have widened to approximately US$630 million in August, supported by continued export growth even as imports accelerated sharply, according to economists surveyed ahead of the country’s latest economic data.
At the same time, consumer inflation is forecast to have edged higher in September, although economists expect it to remain within the central bank’s target range.
The forecasts point to a mixed economic picture for Southeast Asia’s largest economy, with the external trade balance improving while price pressures increase moderately.
Trade surplus expected to reach US$630 million
Economists expect Indonesia to report a trade surplus of around US$630 million for August.
That would represent a substantial increase from the approximately US$130 million surplus recorded in July.
July had already marked an improvement in Indonesia’s external trade position after the country recorded deficits during the previous two months.
The deficit registered in May was particularly significant because it brought an end to a monthly trade surplus streak that had lasted approximately six years.
If the August forecast is confirmed, Indonesia will have recorded a second consecutive monthly surplus following that disruption.
Export growth expected to slow
A poll of 17 economists placed the median estimate for annual export growth in August at 4.30 percent.
That would represent a slowdown from the 6.05 percent annual growth recorded in the previous month.
Exports would therefore remain in positive territory, but at a more moderate pace.
Indonesia is a major exporter of commodities and manufactured products, making external demand an important component of the country’s economic performance.
The expected moderation in export growth will consequently be closely watched alongside developments in imports.
Imports forecast to accelerate sharply
Imports are expected to have increased much more rapidly.
Economists forecast annual import growth of 31.14 percent in August, accelerating from 27.02 percent in July.
The scale of that increase will be an important part of the official trade figures.
Strong import growth can reflect greater domestic demand for consumer products, industrial materials, machinery and other goods, although the supplied forecasts do not provide a detailed breakdown of the factors responsible for the expected increase.
Despite the rapid expansion in imports, economists still expect Indonesia’s overall trade balance to have improved considerably during August.
Inflation expected to rise to 3.30 percent
Indonesia’s September inflation figures are also due on October 1.
A separate poll of 20 economists forecast annual headline inflation at 3.30 percent.
That would represent a modest increase from the 3.19 percent rate recorded previously.
The projected figure would nevertheless remain within the central bank’s target range of 1.5 percent to 3.5 percent.
The forecast therefore suggests that price pressures increased during September without moving outside the range targeted by monetary policymakers.
Core inflation remains broadly stable
Underlying inflation is expected to have changed very little.
The mean forecast for core inflation stood at 2.91 percent for September, compared with 2.92 percent in August.
Core inflation is closely watched because it can provide a clearer indication of persistent price pressures by excluding some of the more volatile components affecting headline inflation.
The near unchanged forecast suggests that economists do not expect a significant acceleration in underlying inflationary pressure.
That contrasts with the modest projected increase in the headline rate.
Central bank remains focused on price stability
With headline inflation expected at 3.30 percent, Indonesia would remain close to the upper end of the central bank’s target range.
The combination of inflation trends and trade performance will provide policymakers with additional evidence about the direction of the economy.
A widening trade surplus could strengthen Indonesia’s external position, while stable core inflation would suggest that underlying price pressures remain relatively contained.
However, the acceleration in headline inflation means policymakers will continue to monitor consumer prices carefully.
October 1 data will test economists’ forecasts
Official figures scheduled for release on October 1 will show whether Indonesia’s trade position improved as strongly as economists expect.
A surplus of approximately US$630 million would represent a notable recovery from the US$130 million recorded in July and provide further evidence that the return to surplus following two months of deficits is continuing.
Attention will also focus on the composition of trade.
Export growth is forecast to remain positive but slow to 4.30 percent, while import growth is expected to accelerate to more than 31 percent.
Meanwhile, the inflation figures will provide another important measure of conditions facing Indonesian households and policymakers.
With headline inflation forecast at 3.30 percent and core inflation expected to remain essentially unchanged at 2.91 percent, economists anticipate moderate price pressure rather than a sharp acceleration.
Together, the October 1 releases will provide a clearer picture of Indonesia’s economic position as the country enters the final quarter of 2026.