The Grand Strategy Institute
Research Division
The Russia–Ukraine War
A War Reshaping Europe’s Security Architecture
A comprehensive multi-chapter strategic assessment examining the origins, evolution, military campaigns and international consequences of Europe’s most consequential armed conflict since the Second World War.
A Living Strategic Assessment
The Russia–Ukraine War represents the most significant transformation of Europe’s security environment since the end of the Cold War. More than a regional conflict, it has accelerated military rearmament, altered energy and trade relationships, expanded NATO and changed the character of modern warfare.
Published by The Grand Strategy Institute Research Division , this assessment examines the historical, political, military, economic and technological dimensions of the conflict through a structured series of interconnected chapters.
The assessment is published as a living research document. New chapters are added as research progresses, allowing readers to follow the gradual development of a comprehensive strategic study rather than a single static publication.
Publication Progress
Part I is now complete. The assessment now moves into Part II — From Frozen Conflict to Full-Scale War.
Part I Complete
Chapter 5 closes the first part of the Strategic Assessment, tracing the political crises and strategic pressures that transformed competition over Ukraine into armed conflict.
Published · Part I Finale
The Road to 2014
The Orange Revolution, Euromaidan, Crimea and the Beginning of the Donbas War
An examination of the Orange Revolution, Viktor Yanukovych’s return to power, the crisis over European integration, Euromaidan, Russia’s seizure and annexation of Crimea and the emergence of armed conflict in the Donbas.
Table of Contents
Twenty-four chapters organised across five major parts, tracing the conflict from its historical foundations to its long-term strategic consequences.
Foundations of the Conflict
Historical, political and strategic origins · Complete
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01
The Post-Cold-War Security Order
From the end of the Soviet Union to the return of great power competition.
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02
Ukraine Between East and West
State building, national identity and strategic geography.
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03
Russia’s Strategic Vision
Historical memory, strategic culture and the concept of the Near Abroad.
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04
NATO After the Cold War
Enlargement, partnerships and competing security perceptions.
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05
The Road to 2014
The Orange Revolution, Euromaidan, Crimea and the beginning of the Donbas War.
From Frozen Conflict to Full-Scale War
Diplomacy, escalation and the major military campaigns
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06
The Failure of Diplomacy
The Minsk Agreements, security guarantees and escalating tensions.
Next -
07
The Military Build-up
Russia’s preparations between 2021 and February 2022.
Planned -
08
The Full-Scale Invasion
Operational objectives and the opening campaign.
Planned -
09
The Battle for Kyiv
Why Russia’s initial northern offensive failed.
Planned -
10
The Southern Front
Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and the struggle for the Black Sea corridor.
Planned -
11
The Eastern Front
Donbas, Bakhmut, Avdiivka and the war of attrition.
Planned
The Transformation of Modern Warfare
Technology, doctrine and the changing battlefield
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12
Artillery, Precision Fires and Industrial Warfare
Firepower, ammunition production and the return of mass warfare.
Planned -
13
The Drone Revolution
FPV systems, long-range drones, naval drones and autonomous warfare.
Planned -
14
Air Power and Air Defence
Fighters, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and integrated air defence.
Planned -
15
Electronic Warfare, Cyber Operations and Space
The invisible infrastructure of the modern battlefield.
Planned -
16
Intelligence and Information Warfare
Satellites, open-source intelligence, deception and strategic communications.
Planned
The International Dimension
Alliances, sanctions and global strategic responses
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17
NATO’s Transformation
The return of collective defence and forward deterrence.
Planned -
18
European Rearmament
Defence spending, industrial mobilisation and the end of the peace dividend.
Planned -
19
The Economic War
Sanctions, energy, trade, finance and economic resilience.
Planned -
20
The Global Response
The United States, China, India and the Global South.
Planned
Strategic Consequences
Long-term implications, lessons and future scenarios
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21
How the War Reshaped Europe’s Security Architecture
The strategic transformation of the European continent.
Planned -
22
Lessons for Twenty-First-Century Warfare
Military adaptation, resilience, technology and strategic endurance.
Planned -
23
Future Scenarios
Frozen conflict, negotiated settlement, escalation or long war.
Planned -
24
Strategic Conclusions
The conflict’s enduring implications for Europe and the international order.
Planned
Key Research Themes
The assessment connects battlefield developments with the wider political, economic, technological and strategic transformation produced by the war.
Grand Strategy
Military Operations
European Security
Great Power Competition
Drone Warfare
Intelligence
Energy Security
Economic Sanctions
NATO and Deterrence
Air and Missile Warfare
Cyber and Electronic Warfare
Future Scenarios
Methodology
A multidisciplinary approach combining historical research, military analysis, international relations and strategic forecasting.
Evidence-Based Research
Chapters draw on official documents, government publications, military statements, academic research, international organisations and established analytical institutions.
Strategic Analysis
Events are examined within their broader historical and geopolitical context, connecting operational developments to long-term strategic objectives and consequences.
Continuous Revision
As new evidence becomes available, chapters may be expanded, revised or supplemented to reflect significant developments and improve the assessment.
Document Development
Part I of Strategic Assessment SA-001 is now complete. The research now moves into Part II, examining the period from the unresolved Donbas conflict and failed diplomatic settlements to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Readers are encouraged to return to this page as new chapters are published. The progress indicator and table of contents will continue to be updated with every release, preserving a permanent overview of the research project.
Suggested Citation
Readers, students and researchers may cite the assessment using the following institutional reference:
The Grand Strategy Institute Research Division. The Russia–Ukraine War: A War Reshaping Europe’s Security Architecture. Strategic Assessment No. 001, Open Chronicle, 2026.