Russia Could Attack EU Within Five Years, Warns Defense Commissioner

By Staff Writer with Agencies

The European Union’s defense commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, has issued a stark warning that Russia could be capable of launching a military attack on EU countries within the next five years. Speaking at an EU security forum in Warsaw, Kubilius underscored that Russia has already engaged in hybrid warfare against the bloc and is rapidly increasing its military capabilities.

Russia’s Growing Military Threat

Kubilius highlighted that Russia has transitioned into a wartime economy, producing more weapons than all NATO members combined. He warned that if the EU fails to take decisive action, Moscow could soon escalate from hybrid attacks to direct military confrontations.

“Soon, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin could be tempted to use that military power,” Kubilius said. “Intelligence services report that Russia is preparing to challenge NATO Article 5 on collective self-defense by 2030. In five years or less, Russia could be willing and able to attack one or more EU countries.”

The commissioner also pointed to Russia’s existing hybrid warfare tactics, including disinformation campaigns, the use of migrant flows as a political weapon on the borders of Poland, Latvia, Lithuania, and Finland, and the sabotage of undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.

The EU’s Response: A White Paper on Defense

In response to the growing Russian threat, the European Commission recently published a White Paper on the future of EU defense. This document, released on March 19, outlines strategic measures to strengthen Europe’s military readiness, fill critical capability gaps, and build a stronger defense industry.

Kubilius emphasized that supporting Ukraine remains a key component of the EU’s defense strategy. He also stressed that European nations must significantly increase defense spending and act in unity, in close coordination with NATO.

“No single member state alone can stand up against Russia,” Kubilius stated. “But together, we can. The EU is the biggest single market in the world, and NATO is the largest defensive military alliance in the world.”

Strengthening European Defense Capabilities

The White Paper outlines concrete steps for EU countries to boost their defense posture, including increased investments in military technology, enhanced coordination in defense procurement, and efforts to make Europe’s defense industry more resilient.

As tensions continue to rise, EU leaders face growing pressure to accelerate military preparedness and ensure collective security. With intelligence reports indicating that Russia could be ready to test NATO’s resolve within the decade, European policymakers are being urged to act swiftly in fortifying the continent’s defenses.