Image: from Kwadwo X @Okwanfour
By Open Chronicle Staff with Agencies
LONDON — A new analysis of maritime traffic reveals that the vast majority of vessels successfully navigating the Strait of Hormuz during the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran are directly linked to the Iranian regime, casting doubt on recent diplomatic claims.
Data released Wednesday by Lloyd’s List Intelligence indicates that since March 1, the day following the commencement of joint U.S.-Israeli military operations, 71% of all ships transiting the strategic waterway are either Iranian-owned, destined for Iranian ports, or part of the “shadow fleet” used to move sanctioned Iranian oil.
President Trump claims Iran allowed at least eight Pakistani-flagged oil tankers to sail through the Strait of Hormuz as a “present” to the U.S. during the negotiations to end the war. The president said Iran then sent two additional vessels, suggesting it had permitted 10… pic.twitter.com/3pAJjRehTd
— CBS News (@CBSNews) March 26, 2026
The “Toll Booth” Effect
The findings follow assertions by President Trump last week that Tehran had delivered a “present” by allowing eight oil tankers through the strait. However, Lloyd’s analysts suggest the reality on the water is one of strict Iranian control rather than broad concessions. The regime is reportedly using Larak Island, situated in the heart of the strait, as a literal “toll booth” to vet and collect fees from passing traffic.
The “shadow fleet”, vessels with opaque ownership designed to bypass international restrictions, now accounts for 88% of all transits over the past week, up from 83% the previous week.
Discrepancies in Diplomatic Claims
The maritime data also appears to contradict specific diplomatic breakthroughs announced recently:
-
The Pakistan “Deal”: Despite Pakistan’s announcement of a bilateral agreement with Tehran to allow two ships per day, and President Trump’s mention of Pakistan-flagged tankers as part of his “present,” tracking data from MarineTraffic shows no measurable increase in such vessels.
-
Chinese Transit: Despite the perceived alignment between Beijing and Tehran, Chinese ships accounted for only 10% of transits. Two COSCO ultra-large container ships were initially turned back by Iranian forces before eventually being allowed to cross on Monday.
-
Limited Tanker Volume: Only 11 oil tankers in total moved through the strait in either direction over the last seven days, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center.
Targeted Blockade
Tehran has maintained that the Strait of Hormuz remains officially closed only to vessels belonging to or affiliated with the United States and Israel. However, the Lloyd’s data suggests that even among “compliant” international vessels, such as Greek bulk carriers, most that successfully pass have established ties to Iranian trade interests.
The tightening grip on the strait remains a primary point of leverage for Iran as the regional conflict continues, with the maritime data suggesting that passage is increasingly reserved for those within Tehran’s economic or political orbit.