Image Credentials: Image Title: US–Iran Peace Deal Nears Critical Stage as Major Disputes Persist Over Hormuz and Nuclear Terms. Source: (chatgpt.com) Date: May 2026. Attribution: This image was created using AI-generated imagery (chatgpt.com) by Open Chronicle and does not depict a real-world scene.
By The Grand Strategy Institute
The United States and Iran appear closer than they have been in years to reaching a formal memorandum of understanding aimed at transforming the current ceasefire into a broader long-term settlement. Despite growing diplomatic momentum, major disagreements remain unresolved over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief, and frozen financial assets.
Senior officials on both sides have described the negotiations as advancing, though cautiously. Speaking during a visit to India, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there was now “a pretty solid thing on the table” regarding maritime access through the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of structured negotiations over Iran’s nuclear activities.
The proposed framework would reportedly establish a 60-day period during which both sides would attempt to finalize a comprehensive agreement. According to US officials, sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian assets would only occur once Tehran demonstrates compliance with the reopening of Hormuz and other commitments.
President Donald Trump, however, has tempered expectations in recent days after initially declaring that a deal was “largely negotiated.” On Sunday, Trump stressed that Washington would not rush into an agreement and insisted any new arrangement would differ fundamentally from the 2015 nuclear accord negotiated under former President Barack Obama.
The renewed diplomatic urgency follows months of escalating tensions in the Gulf region. On February 28, the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes against Iranian military and government targets, including operations that reportedly killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and several senior Iranian officials.
Iran responded by imposing restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy corridors. The disruption affected nearly 20 percent of global oil and gas flows, triggering sharp increases in energy prices and raising fears of a broader economic crisis.
A conditional ceasefire brokered by Pakistan came into effect on April 8 and has since been extended multiple times. Islamabad continues to mediate talks between Washington and Tehran, focusing on maritime security, sanctions, reconstruction efforts, and a possible long-term peace framework.
The status of the Strait of Hormuz remains the most immediate and sensitive issue. Trump has publicly claimed that the waterway would reopen under the proposed memorandum, but Iranian officials maintain that Tehran will retain oversight of maritime operations in the area.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei rejected the idea of American control or involvement in the strait, declaring that “the Strait of Hormuz has nothing to do with America.”
Tehran is also demanding that the US naval blockade on Iranian ports be lifted immediately, alongside any reopening measures. Washington has so far refused that condition, insisting the blockade will remain in place until a final agreement is signed and fully implemented.
Another major obstacle concerns Iran’s nuclear stockpile. The United States is demanding that Tehran relinquish more than 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium and halt further enrichment activities during negotiations.
Iran has refused to formally discuss nuclear limitations at this stage, arguing that any talks on enrichment or nuclear infrastructure can only begin after a broader war-ending memorandum is finalized. Iranian state media also reported that Tehran has made no commitments regarding its uranium stockpile or nuclear facilities under the current draft.
The question of frozen Iranian financial assets remains equally contentious. Tehran is demanding immediate access to overseas funds as part of the agreement, while Washington insists the assets will only be released after the full reopening of Hormuz and verifiable compliance measures.
Iranian officials estimate that sanctions relief on oil exports alone could generate nearly $10 billion in revenue during the first two months of implementation.
Regional dynamics are also complicating negotiations. Draft language reportedly references ending the conflict “on all fronts, including Lebanon,” though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly maintained that Israel reserves the right to act militarily against perceived threats throughout the region.
The possibility of a US–Iran agreement has already triggered strong reactions inside Israel and among some American political factions, particularly those skeptical of offering concessions to Tehran.
Despite the remaining disputes, both Washington and Tehran have acknowledged that their positions are becoming closer. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said recent talks provided “grounds for optimism that a positive and durable outcome is within reach.”
Still, the gap between public rhetoric and actual agreement terms remains substantial. Even as diplomatic channels intensify, military pressure continues in parallel. American forces recently intercepted an Iranian-flagged tanker accused of violating the ongoing blockade, underscoring how fragile the situation remains.
Analysts now expect that even if a preliminary memorandum is signed, months of difficult negotiations over Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions enforcement, and regional security arrangements would still follow before any lasting settlement could emerge.
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