Image Credentials: Image Title: Global Tensions in 2026: Insights from Hal Brands at the World Knowledge Forum Source: (sora.openai) Date: November 2025. Attribution: This image was created using AI-generated imagery (sora.openai) and does not depict a real-world scene.
By Liam Scott | Staff Writer
At the 2026 World Knowledge Forum, distinguished foreign policy scholar Hal Brands offered a sweeping tour of today’s most volatile geopolitical flashpoints. In a wide-ranging conversation with moderator Terry Martin, Brands discussed conflicts stretching from Eastern Europe to the Indo-Pacific, emphasizing how shifting alliances, growing military capabilities, and domestic politics are reshaping global stability.
Despite diplomatic attempts, Brands warned that prospects for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine remain bleak. He noted that recent incidents, including Russian drones entering Polish airspace before being shot down, underscore the risk of the war spilling beyond Ukrainian borders.
Brands argued that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objectives have not shifted. Russia still seeks not only territorial gains but the effective destruction of Ukraine as an independent political actor capable of aligning with the West. Any settlement Putin might offer, he said, would be unacceptable for Kyiv because it would compromise Ukraine’s sovereignty and future.
Given these conditions, Brands predicted the conflict will likely continue at least through the end of the year, with the outcome depending on whether “the Ukrainian military or the Russian economy gives out first.”
Many expected Donald Trump’s second term to strengthen ties with India, but instead, tensions have risen. Tariffs imposed on India for purchasing Russian oil, disagreements over trade, and diverging approaches to global security have strained the relationship.
Brands explained that India’s long-standing strategic cooperation with Russia, coupled with its tendency to pursue an independent foreign policy, has frustrated Washington. Although recent social-media exchanges between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi signal attempts to ease tensions, Brands emphasized that neither country can counter Chinese influence in Asia without the other. He described India drifting toward China as “quasi-suicidal” and believes current tensions are tactical rather than strategic.
Trump’s pursuit of a sweeping economic agreement with Chinese leader Xi Jinping continues, although progress remains slow. After imposing heavy tariffs, Trump pivoted when China responded by restricting rare earth exports, revealing US vulnerabilities.
China appears in no hurry to strike a deal. Xi believes he holds leverage and has been willing to wait for further American concessions. Even if a trade agreement is reached, Brands cautioned that deeper structural issues ensure long-term US–China rivalry will remain. Economic competition, security tensions, and incompatible strategic goals make a full thaw unlikely.
Footage of two Chinese vessels colliding while chasing a Philippine ship near Second Thomas Shoal highlighted rising tensions. Brands warned that increasing Chinese coercion raises the risk of an incident that could trigger the US–US-Philippines defense treaty, especially if Filipino personnel were harmed.
Regarding Taiwan, Brands argued that China’s military buildup and political concerns about Taiwan’s drift away from Beijing have combined into a dangerous dynamic. China now conducts aggressive military exercises several times a year, showcasing its ability to blockade or quarantine Taiwan with little warning. While the timing of a crisis is uncertain, the risk is escalating.
On the Korean Peninsula, Brands described a deteriorating security environment marked by deepening cooperation among North Korea, Russia, and China. Recent images of Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong-un appearing together in Beijing reflected their growing alignment against the Western-led international order.
Brands highlighted two particularly troubling developments. First, Russia and North Korea have formalized a mutual defense alliance, and North Korean troops have even participated in the war in Ukraine. Second, Russian technology and diplomatic protection are accelerating North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs. Combined with the regime’s progress in intercontinental strike capabilities, this trend raises questions about the future credibility of US extended deterrence.
The United States and South Korea have begun addressing these concerns through the 2023 Washington Declaration, but Brands suggested that much more will be required to secure long-term stability.
One encouraging development, Brands noted, is the strengthening trilateral cooperation among the United States, South Korea, and Japan. Although each country has undergone political transitions, maintaining this cooperation is vital for regional security and for countering coercion across the Western Pacific.
Brands explained that the midterms will not directly alter US foreign policy because executive power dominates this domain. However, international observers will watch closely, since the results will signal the long-term viability of each party. If Democrats gain ground, it may be seen as a sign of recovery. If they fail, it would reinforce the challenges facing a party already suffering from declining enthusiasm among its base.
When asked whether organizations like BRICS or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization might fill a vacuum if the United States retreats from global leadership, Brands remained skeptical. Internal divisions among member states, particularly between China and India, limit their coherence.
Despite domestic turbulence, Brands emphasized that no stable international order is feasible without a strong US role. Whether in Europe, the Middle East, or Asia, regional powers lack the cohesion or capacity to counter authoritarian aggression without American support.
Staff Writers at Open Chronicle produce in-depth, field-informed reporting on defense, diplomacy, cultural transformation, and global affairs. Known for clarity, accuracy, and analytical depth, they connect breaking developments to broader historical and strategic contexts. In addition to frontline journalism, Staff Writers also contribute to the Open Chronicle Encyclopedia, crafting authoritative entries that preserve critical knowledge and enrich public understanding.